Between 1 million and 1.49 million people in Sri Lanka may need humanitarian food assistance until May 2027, according to the latest outlook from the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET).

The report projects widespread “Stressed” (IPC Phase 2) food security conditions between October 2026 and January 2027. It says household food stocks from the 2026 Yala harvest are running down, leaving families more dependent on market purchases.

Pressure is expected to be greatest between October and January among low-income plantation workers, poor coastal fishing communities and the urban poor. Food assistance needs are forecast to peak between October and December. However, FEWS NET does not expect large-scale humanitarian food assistance during the projection period from October 2026 to May 2027.

The report says headline inflation rose from 2.3 per cent in January to 8.3 per cent in October 2026, while the rupee lost 6.2 per cent against the US dollar between January and September. Diesel and gas prices rose by about 41 per cent between January and October, partly because of higher global energy and shipping costs, it says. These increases have added to the cost of moving food, farming and fishing.

Conditions are expected to improve from February 2027, particularly in the Dry Zone, as the 2026/27 Maha harvest refills household stocks and creates more farm work. The harvest, due between January and March 2027, is forecast to be broadly favourable and close to the recent five-year average.

Even so, rice prices are expected to stay above their five-year averages. In September, retail prices of Nadu and Samba rice in Colombo were 11 per cent and 5 per cent above those averages, the report says.

Background

FEWS NET is an international food security monitoring network that publishes regular country outlooks. It uses the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), a five-phase scale. Phase 2, “Stressed”, means households can meet minimum food needs but cannot afford some essential non-food expenses without taking measures such as cutting spending or selling assets.

Sri Lanka has two main cultivation seasons. The Maha season is the larger, with harvesting normally from about January to March, and the Yala season runs through the middle of the year. The report says the second inter-monsoon and northeast monsoon rains may bring floods, strong winds, landslides and rough seas, which can disrupt farming and fishing.

The report also warns that below-average rain expected in March and April 2027, during the first inter-monsoon, could limit water supplies and delay land preparation and planting for the next Yala season, particularly in rain-fed areas and places with little irrigation.

What it means

For households, the report points to a difficult period for meeting both food and other essential costs, especially for people who depend on irregular agricultural wages or on fishing, where rough seas cut the number of working days.

The report says staple food is expected to remain broadly available until May 2027, so the pressure is on what households can afford rather than on supply. It expects rice prices to ease slightly after the Maha harvest reaches markets in February and March, but to remain above recent averages.